'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
During the reporting week, gold reserves increased marginally by $87 million to $26.796 billion.
India's foreign exchange reserves increased $2.95 billion to $645.58 billion for the week ended March 29, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday. This is the sixth consecutive week of a jump in overall reserves. The kitty had increased $140 million to $642.63 billion in the previous reporting week.
A combination of factors, including heavy investments in US Treasury bonds and dollar sales at a healthy profit, facilitated the Indian central bank in transferring a record surplus of Rs 2.11 trillion to the government for 2023-24 (FY24). The RBI's dollar purchases increased in FY24, supported by robust capital inflows endorsing the economy's health.
During the week, gold reserves declined by $443 million to $26.910 billion.
All components showed improvement with the exception of FDI and banking capital in the first half of 2010-11.
Trading in the forex market was impacted on Friday as one of the platforms suffered an outage. One of the electronic trading platforms suffered an outage around midday during the trading hours due to which players were unable to log into the system, according to sources. Orders dried up as a result of this, they said, adding that this created a heightened uncertainty in the forex market, causing excess volatility in the Indian rupee, which was avoidable.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
Foreign exchange reserve, often taken as a yardstick to gauge a country's financial strength, are the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by central banks or monetary authorities (it is Reserve Bank in case of India).
Forex reserves include a country's gold holdings and convertible foreign currencies held in its banks, including special drawing rights and exchange reserve balances, with the International Monetary Fund.
India is among the top 10 nations in terms of foreign exchange reserves.
'Many global investors have been overweight on dollar assets, so some diversification or hedging is naturally expected.'
The overall reserves had jumped by $7.2 billion to $595.98 billion for the previous reporting week. It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rising price of the precious metal has helped the central bank increase overall forex reserves despite currency reserves not rising, and sometimes even falling.
In the swap auction conducted on April 23, the Reserve Bank had received bids worth $ 18.65 billion against $ 5 billion on offer.
The amount involved is just 3.6 per cent of our forex reserves and the gains to be made are huge -- not to try the idea would be foolhardy.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has extended the trading hours for the interbank call money market from July 1, and that of repo and tri-party repo markets from August 1. Market participants said the decision is intended to help reduce the large Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) balances held by banks with the RBI, thereby addressing liquidity mismatches.
India's forex kitty rose by $12.80 billion to $572.80 billion in the week ended March 17, the Reserve Bank said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had dropped by $2.39 billion to a three-month low of $560.00 billion. It can be noted that in October 2021, the country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
The reserves had touched a life-time high of $426.028 billion in the week to April 13, 2018.
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
India's forex reserves rose for the fifth consecutive week, adding $4.41 billion to $295.71 billion in the week ended December 6 on account of a rise in foreign currency assets, the Reserve Bank said.
The reserves had touched an all-time high of $367.16 billion previously
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
The forex kitty swelled for the fifth week in a row during the week ended December 6 to $295.71 billion, adding $4.41 billion. Between August 30 and December 6, the reserves have increased by close to $17 billion.
India's foreign exchange reserves dropped $325 million to $560.942 billion as of February 24, making it the fourth consecutive week of decline in the kitty, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined $5.68 billion to $561.267 billion. In October 2021, the forex kitty reached an all-time high of $645 billion.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Wednesday searched locations in Karnataka, including educational institutions linked to state Home Minister G Parameshwara, as part of a probe into alleged gold smuggling-linked money laundering case against Kannada actor Ranya Rao and others. The ED sources said an educational trust is suspected to have "diverted" funds and made a payment of Rs 40 lakh towards the credit card bill of Rao, allegedly on the instructions of an influential individual. The sources claimed the trust is linked to Parameshwara and the "influential" individual is a politically exposed person. The searches found there were no supporting vouchers or documentation to "substantiate" this payment (for credit card bill payment), they said.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
It is thought that the RBI has been accumulating dollars to fight odds.
The Budget should undertake further reductions in import tariffs and seriously consider an announcement of India's intention to join one or both of the two Asian mega-regional free trade agreements, suggests Shankar Acharya, former chief economic adviser to the Government of India.
